FXUS65 KREV 130929
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
229 AM PDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TODAY
WITH VALLEYS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY. THE WARMING BEGINS
ALOFT AND TAKES A FEW DAYS TO MIX DOWN TO LOWER VALLEYS...SO
SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE FASTEST TEMPERATURE RISE.

WHAT MODERATES THE LOWER ELEVATION WARMING IS A TIGHT GRADIENT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH
CREATES A MODERATE NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT THAT DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WHICH REINFORCES THE
GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENS THE FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST RIDGE WINDS WITH ENOUGH WIND MIXING
DOWN TO LAKE TAHOE TO LIKELY WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THURSDAY MORNING. GRADIENTS FINALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE WEST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH. JORDAN

.LONG TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY WARM CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
LARGE TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES REMAIN IN THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA
THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN RUNNING 30+ METERS HIGHER IN ITS
HEIGHT FIELDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN THE GFS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS.  WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
THE WEEKEND.  NEW RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET THIS WEEKEND.

ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR
MONO COUNTY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS EXPECT THE LOVELOCK-FALLON
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESPONSE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED
THIS WEEKEND.

FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS LESS CERTAINTY AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH HOW FAST PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE.  ECMWF
FLATTENS THE RIDGE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS. SO MAY ONLY SEE
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ON MONDAY.  BRONG

&&

.CLIMATE...

LOOKED AT RECORD HIGHS FOR SITES IN THE TABULAR STATE FORECAST.
A COUPLE SITES IN THE SIERRA MAY SET OR TIE RECORDS HIGHS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY.  BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORDS WILL BE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD.  WILL ISSUE A PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH A LISTING OF RECORD AND FORECAST HIGHS
THURSDAY-SUNDAY.  BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA MAY
CREATE SOME TURBULENCE AT TRK AND TVL.  BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

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