FXUS65 KPUB 171010
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
410 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY SOME VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH IS EXITING SRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.  HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH MORE THAN SOME
BRIEF VFR CIGS ASSOC WITH THESE...AND DOUBT THAT THERE IS MUCH IF
ANY PCPN ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND UNDER THESE.

FOR TODAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY...WITH H7 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +7 IN THE EAST TO +11C IN
THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
70S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S/60S FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV PICS ACROSS MT/ID WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN.  NAM BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE DURING
THE AFTN. GFS BY CONTRAST IS DRIER.  HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS ACROSS
SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS...BUT WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTS.  BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MAY DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL...AND LIGHTNING.  WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...WITH
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

LEE TROF DEEPENS OVERNIGHT WITH RESULTING WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS
KEEPING LOWER EASTERN SLOPES MUCH WARMER THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 50.  FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS...MIN TEMPS
WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
SNOW MELT TO RAMP UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

CHALLENGES ARE HOW WARM AND MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM

SUNDAY...PROMISES TO BE A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 12 TO 14 C RANGE...TRANSLATING TO 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
50S TO 70S MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. NAM12 SHOWS SOME SPOTTY QPF
VALUES...BUT MAY JUST BE VIRGA...AND SURROUNDING OFFICES DID NOT
BITE ON IT EITHER.

MONDAY...NAM12 SOLUTION FOR LATER MONDAY A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SHORTWAVE RIPPLING INTO THE PLAINS WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. AGAIN...SURROUNDING
OFFICES GOING 0 POPS ATTM...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE DEGREES CELSIUS...SO GOING FORECAST OF
MID 90S IN THE PLAINS LOOKS GOOD...WITH 50S TO NEAR 80 MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.

TUESDAY...GFS AND 06Z RUN OF NAM12 HAVE EVEN WARMER AIR COMING IN.
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES ON PAR WITH MONDAY...BUT COULD BE
WARMER.

WEDNESDAY...AS TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST...WINDS INCREASE...AND
HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE AFFECTING OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
DIGGING LOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS HAVE CUTOFF LOW
FORMING TO OUR WEST...BUT THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS.
EUROPEAN IS FARTHER WEST WITH LOW...WHICH COULD BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WHILE GFS DOES NOT DO THIS.
COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAY ACTUALLY NEED SOME SNOW HIGHLIGHTS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY.  SOME CUMULUS
BUILD UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL VFR
CIGS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/13