FXUS63 KPAH 111926
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE LIES WITH THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT A VERY WINDY DAY TO THE REGION.
HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE TODAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL BE A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TIL AROUND 7
PM...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THAT TIME.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET WX WISE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE TUE AFTN WEST...WITH HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM/MID LVL SHORT WAVE AFFECT THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POTENT...BUT NOT AS MUCH SO AS THIS PAST
ONE. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH INTO AR/TN...SO AM NOT EXPECTING A BIG SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED A TAD TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH WITHIN THE DEEP NW FLOW
PATTERN THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

MAV/MEX MOS TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THOSE
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PRIMARY AVIATION FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL WINDS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE GUSTING ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...DECREASING CONSIDERABLY TOWARD 00Z WITH WINDS BELOW
10 KNOTS BY 02-04Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR KEVV AND KOWB.  SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ALL THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

$$