FXUS63 KMPX 170743
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD OF CONUS.  SEVERAL UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES...ARE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

SREF AND SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE BASE CAPES INCREASE TO 300-600 J/KG WITH SFC
LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2.  HAVE DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

BY END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...PATTERN SHIFTS AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

CDFNT HAS PASSED ALL TAF SITES AND CONT TO DROP SE OVRNITE. DMNSHG
SHWRS AND FEW TSTMS WL BE WELL S OF ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z.  CONCERN
FOR TMRW IS ANOTHER DAY OF STG NWLY WNDS AND SCT SHWRS AND FEW TSTMS
AS STG CDFNT DROPS INTO AREA.  BEST PCPN CHCS WL BE AT STC/RNH AND
EAU IN THE ERLY/MID AFTN.  WITH INVERTED V-TYPE SNDG THERE WILL BE A
WND THREAT FM TSTMS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$