FXUS63 KMKX 012123
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008

.SHORT TERM...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE MAINLY THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONTINUES AND SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TRENDED LOW TEMPS
TOWARD THE COLDER ETA MOS GUIDANCE.

FOR TUE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FROM CANADA. BREEZY SLY WINDS AND A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL
WARM 850 MB TEMPS TO 0 TO 3C WHILE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES RISE TO
540 TO 546 DM. KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE DUE
TO SNOW COVER AND SOME MID TO HIGH CLDS FROM WAA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SLY FOR MOST OF TUE NT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND CDFNT OVER MN. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
HAS TIGHT TROPOSPHERIC GRADIENT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT MID
LVL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BEGIN LATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
CWA AND THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI ON WED. GFS IS MOST
ROBUST WITH DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING OF SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WHICH
INCREASES OVER ERN WI. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK MAY
ALSO SET UP OVER ERN WI RESULTING IN DEEP OVERALL LIFT. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER ARE WEAKER WITH LIFT AND QPF AND DURATION OF
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE SHORT. WENT WITH THE LOWER QPF OF HPC AND SREF
WHICH IS 0.20 TO 0.25 INCHES. COBB AND ROEBBER TECHNIQUES ALONG
WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ALL SUPPORT RATIOS AROUND 13 TO 1.
THIS PRODUCES AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NW CWA TO NEARLY 4 IN THE
FAR SE CWA. GARCIA METHOD WOULD YIELD 5 TO 6 INCHES GIVEN MIXING
RATIOS OF 2.5-3.0 G/KG BUT WITH SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL CUT THAT
NEARLY IN HALF. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED AFT AND NT WILL DRY
OUT ATM QUICKLY WITH MAINLY FLURRIES LEFT FOR WED NT.

.LONG TERM...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...NW FLOW PATTERN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.
ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
DUE TO COLD PATTERN AND SNOW COVER. FOR THU A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER TROUGH ON WED.
1000-500 MB THICKNESS AROUND 510 DM AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN SCT FLURRIES. THERE IS A MARGINAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THU NT AND BELIEVE DECOUPLING IS
PROBABLE SO LOWERED LOW TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

SWLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN FOR FRI AND FRI NT
AS A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 522 DM FOR A SHORT TIME. THE CLIPPER WILL BRING CHANCES OF
LGT SNOW FRI NT AND SAT. COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT LIGHTER
WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AGAIN SUN
AM. BELOW ZERO TEMPS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF HIGH BUILDS EWD QUICKER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WITHIN NW
FLOW APPROACHES FOR SUN NT AND PASSES THROUGH MON AND MON NT. A
CHANCE OF LGT SNOW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SCOUR THINGS OUT. WILL THEN INCREASE
MID DECK TOMORROW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REPLACING GALE WARNING.
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX LATER THIS EVENING INFLUENCE OF DEPARTED
LOW BEING REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TOMORROW AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...10