FXUS66 KMFR 120327
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
830 PM PDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN
OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN EASTERN LAKE
AND MODOC COUNTIES. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY EAST OF THE CASCADES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND NORTHERN
UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A 500MB HEIGHT RISE. MONDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY FROM COOL AND CLOUDY TO SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE MODELS HAVE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA STARTING TUESDAY AND REMAINING
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARMING WILL START ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY. THE GFS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 22C THURSDAY...THEN 25C FRIDAY THEN NEAR 22C SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF SHOWS 25C...28C AND 25C IN THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. SO THE NET RESULT IS THAT WE COULD GET TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COOLING
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND MORE SPECIFICALLY NEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WEST AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES NEXT SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT THE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT NEAR KOTH...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 3500 FEET. NORTH
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KMFR WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR NEAR
KLMT TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL 9PM THEN DECREASING
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS
MONDAY WITH BKN CLOUDS BECOMING SCT BY THE AFTERNOON.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.

$$

PETRUCELLI/11