FXUS64 KLUB 160913
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON MORNING WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. WEAK AREA OF LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDING IN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. TTU MESONET NOT REGISTERING
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR. NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT AMPLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS ALL SIGNALS POINT TO A
GENERAL DRYING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWFA AFTER 12Z. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS UNTIL 15Z OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO THE 70S IN MOST LOCALES. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.  KW

.LONG TERM...
THE WEAK/ELONGATED UA TROUGH AXIS NOW OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE WEST TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE
AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE MAXIMA PROGGED TO
BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER TRENDS DO SUGGEST THAT A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ PLAINS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCLEAR...ENOUGH SIGNAL IS PRESENT TO WARRANT
LOW ORDER POPS/RAIN MENTION OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE SITUATION
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. WITH POSSIBLE FROPAS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
BUT NO EVIDENCE FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IS YET DISCERNIBLE IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  45  78  49  85 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         73  47  79  52  85 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     73  48  78  53  85 /   0   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     74  49  78  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       74  50  78  55  88 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   74  53  79  54  87 /  20   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    75  52  79  54  88 /  10   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  50  83  58  90 /   0   0   0  10   0
SPUR          77  51  82  54  90 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     79  52  83  55  90 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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