FXUS66 KHNX 112101
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
201 PM PDT SUN MAY 11 2008
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN
PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 6-10 DEG F
BELOW TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z WRF/GFS INDICATING THE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY WITH VORT ENERGY BEHIND IT
INCREASING SURFACE P-GRADS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS TO THE NORMALLY WIND PRONE KERN MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WHERE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE
STRONGEST GRADIENTS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE IN THE SECOND PERIOD.
WRF/GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LARGE DRY UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING
JUST OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND THE AIRMASS TO WARM UP AS HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES RISE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH CLIMO ON
TUESDAY AND EXCEED CLIMO BY WEDNESDAY.
THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
PROGGED TO BUILD INLAND RESULTING IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8-12 DEG F ABOVE CLIMO
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
12Z ECMWF...GEM AND MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE
RIDGE INTACT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AM THEREFORE HESITANT TO COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TOO MUCH AND STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SUNDAY. RH
PROGS INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SO SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...GREISS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
