FXUS63 KGRB 202046
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT/FRIDAY. VARIOUS NRN US RADAR DISPLAYS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING LES BANDED SNOW WORKING INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 20Z...THE RADARS SHOW THE HEAVIEST AND
MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.  LES ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN A TAD SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN INCLUDING VILAS COUNTY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT
WHICH WORKED OVER. AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI SHOWS THIS
DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A LOWER INVERSION OF 5FT CMOPARED TO THE PROGGED
MODEL CONSENSUS OF 8-9 K 24 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO RAISE THIS INVERSION HEIGHT INTO THE MORE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION THIS AFTN. VIS LOOP SHOWS A PATCH OF
CI IS FINALLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE LES BANDS OVER VILAS AND IS
REVEALING ONE BAND EXTENDING TO LNL WITH ANOTHER BAND FORMING OVER
WRN PORTIONS. CALL TO WINCHESTER OBSERVER AT 20Z INDICATES 6
INCHES TOTAL SNOW SO FAR AND SNOWING VERY HEAVY. WILL CONTINUE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

SHIFTING BACK TO THE CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN SNOW BANDS...AT
20Z...A VERY STRONG LES BAND EXTENDED FROM MQT TO ESC WITH THE
LATEST ESC OB AT 3/4 MILE IN SNOW.  THIS BAND IS POISED TO WORK
OVER THE NRN PORTION OF DOOR COUNTY NEAR WASHINGTON ISLAND...SO GOING
FORECAST OF ACCUM IN THIS REGION LOOKS VERY GOOD. SINCE A WIND
ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT...WILL HANDLED THIS ISOLD SNOW ACCUM
WITH A SPS.

CAA CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER THE SCT SW-/SW-- OVER
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS TOWARD NRN
WISCONSIN CAN STILL EXPECT A BIT MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE NW/W AND DRIER AIR FROM
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

WINDS SUPPORTING THE WIND ADVISORY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY FROM STURGEON BAY ON NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ADVERTISED READINGS
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVERED REGIONS OF VILAS
COUNTY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LAND O LAKES DOES DROP BELOW
ZERO IF HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT COME BACK IN LATE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED DUE TO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MID
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH AT SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD WHILE THE
MODELS INDICATED LIMITED MOISTURE AT 850MB/925MB. BASED ON
THE MOISTURE PARAMETERS...HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE
BEST AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ON SUNDAY...WILL LINGER
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW CHANCES AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE TRANQUIL AT THE MOMENT. IT WILL
BE COLD FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WITH SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING...AFTER 06Z CONDITIONS
BECOME VFR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACTIVITY ACRS THE FAR N.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ022.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005.

&&

$$
TDH/ECKBERG