FXUS63 KGLD 120552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
1259 PM MDT SUN MAY 11 2008

SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ALONG THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ATM WILL DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY WITH MIXING WELL
ABOVE 500 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS A LLJ OVERHEAD PUSHES EAST. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP FROM 5-15 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 17Z TO 03Z.

JUST AS FAST AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES COME...THE WARM TEMPERATURES
GO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS...HAIL AND OF COURSE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. COULD SEE SEE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL FILTER IN THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING WITH MAX TEMPS
AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY. WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
LINGER OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER ATM IS PRETTY STABLE SO DO NOT
BELIEVE WILL SEE ANY THUNDER TUESDAY.

BY 00Z WEDNESDAY H5 LOW CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION CUTS
OFF AND DIGS SOUTHEAST. AT 00Z THURSDAY H5 LOW IS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AND KGLD FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
OVERHEAD. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER ATM BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE WEEKEND WILL SHAPE UP TO BE RATHER PLEASANT AS AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN LEAVING THE CWA IN LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY HIGH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

BURTIS
&&

.AVIATION...
1147 PM MDT SUN MAY 11 2008

FOR THE 06Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN SUSTAINED IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM BEGINNING AROUND 00Z TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE THIS GO AROUND. DO EXPECT A SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK TO MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE MONDAY.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ079.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.

&&

$$

WFO GOODLAND