FXUS63 KGID 112344
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EVEN
STRONGER TOMORROW. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY OF AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
CUTTING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. THOUGH COOL FOR MID MAY...ITS STILL A NICE DAY.

ABOUT THE ONLY THING OF INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS BY...AND THEN ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH TO THE EAST AND
DEEPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. WARMER AIR WILL BE
FOUND MONDAY...BUT FLOW IS STILL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PRETTY MUCH EVERY
TIME WE HAVE HAD THAT WIND DIRECTION THIS SPRING FORECAST WITH A
WARM UP...THE CWFA HAS STRUGGLED TO WARM. MUCH OF THE CWFA IS ALSO
SOAKED TOO...SO FEEL A MAJORITY OF THE CWFA WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MIDDLE 70S WITH SOME 80 DEGREE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL
TREK EAST/SOUTHEAST SOMEWHERE NEAR OR IN OUR SOUTHEAST CWFA. STRONG CAP
OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES UP
TO 9-10C. MOISTURE RETURN IS MEAGER TO MARGINAL...SO INSTABILITY IS
IN THE SAME BOAT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR
ENHANCED INSTABILITY IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND THE SFC LOW CENTER. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AMONGST THE SPLITTING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A RISK OF LATE NIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND THAT LOOKS FINE AS CAPPING
SEEMS LIKE A DECENT BET TO KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
ANY FAVORED RAIN RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWFA.

LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER WAVE
SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
QPF ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ALL INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD
BE SPOTTY IN NATURE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MORNING...BUT
EXPECT FAIRLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD BRING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION AND MORE SUNSHINE. THIS IS A SHORT BREAK BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
MUCH PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME EITHER. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
LOW IS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT EXPECT THAT MOST WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BE TO THE EAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY COULD BE A ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT WITH CLOUDS AND A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS THAT
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A BIT COOLER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL ONLY BE AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$