FXUS64 KFWD 112232 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008


.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 18Z TAF SET FOR N TX AIRPORTS...AS POLAR SFC HI SETTLES
IN OVRNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD TWD LWR MS VALLEY MONDAY...AS
PRESSURE FALL OVER LEE OF ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF S/W-TROF EXPECTED AROUND
MID-WEEK.

THUS VFR WITH THICKENING CI/CS DECKS ALOFT ACROSS N TX BY 12Z MON...IN
ADVANCE OF S/W MVG ACROSS OLD MEXICO. OTRW...NW WNDS 5-10 KTS...GO LGT/VRB
BY 03Z-05Z PD. LGT SE WND 5-10 KTS RETURN BY 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO
BTWN 12-16 KTS BY 18Z MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
RAPID COOL-DOWN EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY
SUNRISE...WHICH IS JUST SHY OF RECORD TERRITORY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE
PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE HAVING QUITE A BIT OF TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...AND WILD VARIANCES FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE PATTERN
FAVORS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A
POSITIVELY TILTED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH FROM BAJA TO THE GREAT
LAKES. WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY DOES EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...IT WILL ENHANCE
THE STORM POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL NOT SERVE TO END RAIN CHANCES ALL
TOGETHER UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH FINALLY TRUDGES THRU LATE FRIDAY.

REGARDING THE FORECAST SPECIFICS THROUGH THE WEEK...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A DRY
LINE AND LEAD SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX TRAVERSES TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS ACROSS AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...IN PART DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...BUT MOSTLY DUE TO A
FETCH OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INFILTRATING MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER SURFACE
AIRMASS...AND THUNDER/SEVERE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL
END AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLOWLY...BUT
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  84  68  85  64 /   0   0   5  30  50
WACO, TX              47  83  69  86  67 /   0   0  10  30  50
PARIS, TX             44  81  63  81  64 /   0   0  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            47  82  67  84  62 /   0   0   5  30  50
MCKINNEY, TX          44  81  65  82  63 /   0   0  10  30  50
DALLAS, TX            54  83  68  83  66 /   0   0   5  30  50
TERRELL, TX           46  80  66  83  67 /   0   0  10  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         51  81  68  84  69 /   0   0  10  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            50  84  68  87  68 /   0   0  10  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/05