FXUS63 KFSD 120846
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER BUT WINDY FOR TODAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. GRADIENT TIGHTEN
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
CURRENTLY SFC WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE OVER CNTRL SD. AS STRONGEST
GRADIENT SHIFTS E...WIND WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ERN SD...NW MN...AND SW IA. HAVE CONSIDERED GOING WIND ADVISORY
GENERALLY FROM I29 EWRD AS WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH
SUSTAINED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR NOW AS ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AND GFS INDICATES WINDS A FEW KNOTS BELOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS WITH MORNING AND WILL ISSUE AN
ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION VERY LOW FOR TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND DESPITE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE...STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...SO NO CHANCES OF SFC BASED CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT EVEN THAT IS LIMITED...SO NO
MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST...THEN INTO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO TUE AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PROPAGATES E ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY KEPT THE 30 TO 40 POPS GOING
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. LOWER LEVEL REMAIN PRETTY DRY...AS GULF MOISTURE IS
NO WHERE CLOSE TO RETURNING. CURRENTLY...50 DEG F DEW POINTS CAN NOT
EVEN BE FOUND ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MINOR
POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SFC AND MID
LEVEL BNDRY PUSH E ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WELL AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH. AS UPPER DYNAMICS NEVER HOOK UP WITH LOW LEVELS...CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE RAIN FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL BNDRY...SO CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE
SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP.

NW FLOW TAKES CONTROL FOR WED AND REMAINS THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THU FOR CHANCE OF PRECIP AS S/WV DROPS
SWRD...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SFC TROUGH OVER WRN SD TO MOVE INTO IA AND MN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NW. BREEZY NW FLOW FOR WED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

$$
LIEBL