FXUS63 KFGF 170138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
838 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
23Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED SURFACE TROUGH WORKING INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH RESULTANT TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER FA I.E. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH PNA TELECONNECTION (RIDGE WEST/TROUGH/
EAST OVER CONUS. EXAMINATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER FA. EXAM OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS DEPICTED
THAT CURRENT READINGS ARE RUNNING A TAD HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CENTERS ON WIND
TRENDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES.

MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE
NAM PERHAPS A TAD SLOWER. NAM/GFS SLOWLY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER FA LATER THIS EVENING AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH PULLS FURTHER
EAST. EXAMINATION OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY DEEP
LAYERED COLUMN TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH 700MB-300MB Q-VECTOR
...PER GFS DIVERGENCE I.E. RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT
CLEAR SKY COVER. SURFACE WINDS ATTM STILL RATHER STRONG SUPPORTING
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE. EXPECT WINDS TO ABATE AFTER DARK
AS DEEP LAYERED MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER ABATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ADVISORY CAN BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN LARGE
TEMP/ DP SPREAD ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
MERCURY DROP. INHERITED LOWS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT UNDER SIMILAR AIRMASS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND RH
FIELDS RISE...PER GFS TO ALLOW FIRE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LATER THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>029-038-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

PB