FXUS64 KEWX 112323
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. SE-SRLY WINDS NEAR
10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

DISCUSSION...
DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO S TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT LOWERS PRESSURES IN WEST TX OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY AND BRISK S-SELY
WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE
DRY LINE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WITH THE PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW ISOLATED STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID WEEK/LATE WEEK
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG INTO FAR WEST TX AND KICK OUT OVER
W CENTRAL/NORTH TX. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF WILL INTERACT WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN/NERN CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WITH ONE SLOWER MOVING TROF/LOW WED-THU, WHILE THE GFS INDICATES
TWO SHORT WAVE TROFS...ONE WED AND ANOTHER THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BOTH LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  83  71  88  72 /   0   0  10  20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  82  71  88  73 /   0   0  10  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  93  74  95  73 /   0  10  20  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  83  72  89  74 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/25/JB