FXUS64 KEPZ 170928
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
320 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE
BORDERLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT...ENDING ANY SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF DAMP COOL WEATHER BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP BEGINS. NICE LITTLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT NOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WITH HEALTHY SUPPLY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...WILL ALL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION AT H5
LEVEL LOOKS TO BE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND HELP DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE. NAM PROG SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY GOOD NORTH BUT FURTHER
SOUTH WE'LL NEED MORE BUOYANCY AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HIT CONVECTIVE
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH SO EVEN IF NO STORMS FORM OVER THE
SOUTH CHANCES ARE PRETTY GOOD THAT SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH. PW'S HINT AT .5 TO 1 INCH RAIN TOTALS BUT
BELIEVE DECENT SPEED OF STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP STORM TOTALS BIT
LOWER.

UPPER HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FLUSHING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LAGGING SHORT
WAVE OF TODAY'S WEATHER WELL OUT OF THE AREA. SUMMER WILL RETURN
WITH A VENGEANCE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY PERHAPS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN A FEW LOWLAND SPOTS.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED MID WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE...IN
VARIOUS PATTERNS...A BROAD UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DOWN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO DIVERGE. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO GFS AS IT LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MORE REALISTIC. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH TOO EARLY FOR THAT YET. THE UPPER LOW
DROPS FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE GILA AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME...SPREADING
OVER REMAINDER OF AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM HANGS AROUND ON FRIDAY
FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN. BULK OF LOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT LATE
FRIDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS LAGGING VORT WILL DIG AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW FOR MORE FORECAST ISSUES TOWARD THE LAST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z-18/12Z...
GENLY VFR. DVLPG AFT 16Z...MAINLY NORTH OF HATCH...ISOLD MVFR CIG
-SHRA/-TSRA. CONDS GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER REMAINDER OF AREA AFT
21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF LOW FIRE DANGER BEFORE DRY WARM CONDITIONS
SLOWLY BRING CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...SPREADING TO REMAINDER OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. DRY BREEZY WEATHER WILL RAMP TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY WELL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY COULD DECREASE THESE
CONDITIONS AGAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  56  88  61  95 /  10  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        76  52  88  55  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              76  55  88  59  94 /  10  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              76  54  89  58  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  38  67  41  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   75  52  87  56  94 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  47  80  51  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  77  54  88  58  95 /  10  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  54  87  58  94 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER