FXUS66 KEKA 112221
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE
VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS
FORECAST THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PAC WILL
SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF NW CA FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST...AND HOW STRONG
IT WILL BE. THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. ALL MODELS SHOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGH SLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE...AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NW CA PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT A CHANGE IN WEATHER MON OR TUE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. TH

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ENABLE THE VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL AIR TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
ELSEWHERE INTERIOR AIR TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH HIGH CLOUD
CEILINGS. LIGHT TURBULENCE EXPECTED DURING DESCENT AND DEPARTURE DUE
TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WIND AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE ON THE RISE AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR BUILDS TOWARD THE
COAST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  GALE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING GENERATING
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE A BIT
LATE TOMORROW AS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DRIFTS WESTWARD
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL LIGHTEN BY FRIDAY AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FROM CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT ARENA OUT 60 NM THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT ARENA OUT 60 NM THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM PT ST GEORGE
TO CAPE MENDOCINO OUT 60 NM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

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