FXUS64 KCRP 112344
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 5-6K FT STRATUS
THRU THE NIGHT AND DIMINISHING NE WINDS. SE WINDS RETURN AFTER 15Z
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN OLD MEXICO SLIDES EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL EJECT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK/MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH DEW
POINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING/RISING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND THAT IS THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE POP FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NAM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE MOVING TROUGH ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST
THAT IS WHAT ITS LAST FORECAST SHOWS)...AND CANADIAN IS CUTTING OFF
PART OF THE LOW FOR THE WEEKEND (SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN). QUICK LOOK
AT NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT IT IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN...AND THIS
IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. SINCE LIKE THE MORE PERSISTENCE OF
THE ECMWF...WENT WITH THAT SOLUTION...SO GENERALLY HAD POPS GOING
FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
ENDING RAIN CHANCE WITH UPPER RIDGE COMING IN (GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH
AND DRIER AIR WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH...SO DO EXPECT A GOOD COOL-DOWN
ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION HOLDS AND MOISTURE CLEARS OUT).
THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN FORECAST. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OUT WEST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER JET AND
UPSLOPE FLOW...THEN SHIFTED RAIN CHANCES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS JET
MOVES EAST ALONG WITH DRYLINE/BOUNDARY. TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ALLOWS A PRETTY GOOD COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO
THE AREA...AND HAVE PUT LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS (ALSO SOME JET
DYNAMICS) FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DECREASING
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT AND DRIER AIR COMING
IN. COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE WARM/HIGH SIDE
IF NOT ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE DRYLINE PASSES.
DITTO LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURE FORECAST A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND MODIFICATIONS BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE ISC
COLLABORATION WHEN APPLICABLE.

MARINE...DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS STILL IN
THE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CATEGORY WITH CURRENT SCA SLATED
TO END AT 7 PM CDT. WINDS/SEAS FALLING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  85  73  90  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  84  72  88  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  97  78 104  80  /   0   0  10  10  20
ALICE             64  87  73  95  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  82  76  86  79  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           62  92  74  97  74  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        65  86  73  93  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  83  77  86  78  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JR/76...AVIATION