FXUS64 KAMA 120431 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AT THE AMA AND GUY TAF SITES.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS BY MID
MORNING MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

AVIATION...
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AMA AND GUY TAF SITES...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER 05Z MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE ONCE THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 15Z MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL ENCOURAGE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE TO INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CWA. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL/S LEAD ON THIS ONE. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TEXAS PANHANDLE COLUMN OF COUNTIES TO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...THINKING THAT THE DRYLINE WILL AT LEAST MAKE IT TO THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON MONDAY GIVEN
THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH.
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS IN THE DIVERGENCE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY TRY TO BRING THIS PRECIP TOWARD THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SO HAVE CONFINED THE POPS GENERALLY TO THE
WESTERN CWA.

THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THE
PANHANDLES TO SEE RAIN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE AFFECTS THE
PANHANDLES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE.
BUT...BELIEVE THAT THE GFS MODEL QPF MAY BE OVERDONE.

CLOUDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES START TO WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION DDC...PUB...OUN AND LUB.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY. BUT WE HAVE
ADDED ANOTHER COLUMN OF COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE EAST
AND WE HAVE MOVED THE START TIME UP TO 10 AM. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON JUST WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL END UP. IF LATER SHIFTS
BELIEVE THAT THE DRYLINE IS GOING TO GO FURTHER EAST...THEN WE MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. FOR NOW THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT
LEAST GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/14